Poll: Most Americans believe it’s ‘likely’ Hillary Clinton will be next president


Hillary Clinton (Credit: CNN)

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WASHINGTON — Just how inevitable is a Hillary Clinton victory in 2016?

More than three-quarters of all Americans predict that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination if she runs for the White House, and two-thirds say she is likely to be the next president if she is the party’s standard-bearer in 2016, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll.

The poll, released Monday, indicates that 44% say it’s very likely the former secretary of state wins her party’s presidential nomination if she decides to make another bid for the White House. Another 34% say it’s somewhat likely she’ll capture the Democratic nomination, and just over one in five say it’s not likely she’ll win.

More than nine in 10 Democrats, nearly three-quarters of independents and even six in 10 Republicans predict that Clinton will win the nomination if she launches another campaign. In an interview last week, Clinton said she would announce her decision regarding a second White House run sometime early next year.

If she captures her party’s nomination, just over three in 10 Americans say it’s very likely she’ll win the White House in 2016, with 36% saying it’s somewhat likely, and 31% saying it’s not likely.

Eighty-two percent of Democrats, two-thirds of independents, and even 51% of Republicans say that if Clinton becomes her party’s nominee, she’ll win the presidency.

There’s one caveat.

“We’ve gone down this path before. In 2008, 74% said that she would win the White House if she captured the Democratic nomination, but the then-senator from New York never made it that far,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International May 29-June 1, before the rollout of Clinton’s new memoir, “Hard Choices.” In the survey, 1,003 adults nationwide were questioned by telephone. The poll’s overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

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