DENVER — Colorado has been notoriously difficult for national pollsters in recent election cycles because of a tendency to underestimate the number of Hispanic voters who ultimately cast ballots.
Looking to get a better understanding of Hispanic turnout with six days to go in the 2014 election, Colorado pollster Kevin Ingham conducted a survey that over-samples Hispanic voters, interviewing them in both English and Spanish, and then weighted them in equal measure to other groups in the final analysis.
The upshot: Democratic Sen. Mark Udall leads Republican Congressman Cory Gardner by a 45-44 percent margin.
Overall, Hispanics account for just 10 percent of the 604 likely voters surveyed by Ingham, who works for the progressive-leaning Strategies 360; and Udall is winning 58 percent of Hispanic voters to Gardner’s 26 percent (white voters support Gardner by a 47-43 percent margin).
“This race at this point is a total turnout game,” Ingham said. “If you look at partisan consolidation, Republicans are backing their candidate, Democrats are backing their candidate — and Republicans are energized this year. The question in the closing days is: will Democrats turn out? Will Hispanics and young people turn out?”
The gender gap is pronounced: Udall has a 17-point edge with women, but Gardner enjoys a 17 percent advantage with men (and a 23 percent edge with white men).
Udall has also consolidated unaffiliated Colorado voters, holding a 48-37 percent lead over Gardner.
In the same survey, Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper leads Republican Bob Beauprez by a 46-43 percent margin.
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