DENVER (KDVR) — Gov. Jared Polis has locked in his lead over Republican challenger Heidi Ganahl ahead of the Nov. 8 election, according to a new poll.
Undecided voters are beginning to make up their minds about which candidate they prefer in a state where independent voters are the largest voting bloc.
The results of the FOX31 / Channel 2 / Emerson College Polling / The Hill Colorado poll conducted Oct. 26-29 show Colorado’s incumbent governor with a 14-point lead over Ganahl. Among voters of all political affiliations, 53.6% of respondents said they would vote for Polis, while 39.9% said they would vote for Ganahl.
Both candidates have gained voters since a previous poll in late September, whittling away the share of voters who said they were unsure. The share of voters who were unsure about their favored governor dropped from 9% in September to 2.8% in October.
Polis gained a smaller share of voters but still has a commanding lead. In September, 52.9% of respondents said they would vote for Polis. Now, 53.6% said they will.
Ganahl gained more of the unsure voters. In September, 36% said they would vote for her. Now, 39.9% said they will vote for her.
In the last month, both Democrats and Republicans have become increasingly partisan in their choice of governor. Independent voters remain more Democratic, but their approval of Republican candidates has strengthened significantly in the last month.
About 88% of polled Democrats said they would vote for Polis last month. In October’s poll, 92% said they would vote for him.
Republicans became similarly hardened to their own party’s candidate, though a larger minority of Republicans said they would vote for Polis than vice versa. The share of Republicans who said they would vote for Ganahl grew from 74.4% in September to 79.8% now.
Among independent voters, the share who favor Polis remained at 52.6% both in September and October, while the share favoring Ganahl grew from 33.3% to 38.8%.
Methodology: The FOX31 / Channel 2 / Emerson College Polling / The Hill Colorado poll was conducted October 26-29, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.02 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel.