DENVER (KDVR) — Coloradans would rather have a second term with President Joe Biden than a second term with Donald Trump, according to a FOX31/Channel 2/Emerson College/The Hill poll of likely voters.
Among all Colorado voters of all political persuasions, 36% said they would vote for Trump in a showdown between him and Biden. A plurality of 46%, however, said they would rather keep the incumbent Democrat. About 14% said they would rather have someone else, and 4% said they are still undecided.
Biden has better chances in Colorado because of his edge with independent voters.
Unaffiliated voters are Colorado’s largest voting bloc, representing 46% of the state’s registered voters. Republicans and Democrats are 24% and 27%, respectively.
Among independent voters, 44% said they would vote for Biden, while only 31% would vote for Trump.
Democrats and Republicans, meanwhile, would vote with either candidate’s party. About 78% of Democrats would vote for Biden, while 78% of Colorado Republicans would vote for Trump.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s search of Mar-a-Lago would drive more Republicans to vote for Trump if he runs, but that still would not swing the state in his favor.
Only 31% of all Colorado voters said the Mar-a-Lago search makes them more likely to vote for Trump. About 40% said it makes them less likely, while 29% said they didn’t care one way or another.
Again, independent voters swing against Trump in the Mar-a-Lago matter. Only 25% said the search makes them more likely to vote for him, while 45% said it makes them less likely to vote for Trump.
The raid intensifies the feelings of Democrats and Republicans. A majority of Democrats said the raid makes them less likely to support Trump, while two-thirds of Republicans said it makes them more likely.
Methodology: The FOX31 / Channel 2 / Emerson College Polling / The Hill Colorado poll was conducted September 18-19, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, party affiliation, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, web survey via email, and an online panel.