DENVER (KDVR) — More Coloradans say they would vote for President Joe Biden than former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, but the difference has narrowed over the last month.
The results of the FOX31 / Channel 2 / Emerson College Polling / The Hill Colorado poll conducted Oct. 26-29 show a plurality of voters would choose Biden.
Among voters of all political affiliations, 46.6% of respondents said they would reelect the incumbent Democratic president in 2024 if it were a choice between him and the Republican former president. Meanwhile, 39.4% said they would vote for Trump.
In the last month, both men have increased the share of Colorado voters who would cast a ballot for them, although Trump’s gain has been larger.
The share of Coloradans favoring Biden grew by eight-tenths of a point from a separate poll conducted in late September. During the same time, Trump expanded his share of likely Colorado voters by 3.6 points.
This reflects a growing distaste for Biden among independent voters, a majority of whom now disapprove of the president’s performance.
In the last month, both Democrats and Republicans have become increasingly partisan in their hypothetical choice of president. Independent voters remain more Democratic, but their likelihood of voting for Trump has grown significantly in the last month.
Democrats are leaning more heavily toward Biden than a month ago. In September, about 78% said they would vote for him over Trump in 2024. Now, 87% of Colorado Democrats said they would vote for Biden.
Republicans have similarly hardened in favor of Trump if the two were to run against each other. In September, 78% of Colorado Republicans said they would vote for Trump, which grew to 83% in October.
Independents still favor Biden more than Trump, but the share of them who would vote for Biden has dropped one point in the last month to 43.6%. Meanwhile, the share who would vote for Trump has grown from 30.7% to 36.2%.
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Methodology: The FOX31 / Channel 2 / Emerson College Polling / The Hill Colorado poll was conducted October 26-29, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.02 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel.