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DENVER (KDVR) — Colorado’s COVID numbers are growing to an anticipated summer surge, but so far they match the least severe version of a surge the state’s experts predict.

COVID cases have been rising for the last month, topping out at over 1,800 per day on average. This matches the caseload from last August, though it does not approach original strain, delta, or omicron surges.

In April and May, the Colorado School of Public Health released two COVID modeling reports. The reports project that Colorado’s COVID hospitalizations will rise through the summer of 2022.

The reports make different estimates depending on several factors. The dominant strain’s strength and contagiousness, the level of immunity in the state and the possibility of a new strain are all taken into account. The stronger the virus is, the worst the hospital demand will be.

As of May 30, hospitalizations are low.

The number of people in hospitals with confirmed COVID cases is rising behind cases, as the Colorado School of Public Health predicted. In the week of May 31, there were 225 people in hospitals with positive COVID cases.

At peak, Colorado could have 800 hospitalized patients if the dominant BA.2.12.1 strain turns out to be highly contagious and good at slipping past immunity from vaccines or previous illness. If the virus is milder, around 600 will be in hospitals in late June.

So far, Colorado’s hospital load matches researchers’ least severe projections at 225 cases. If the wave were to be stronger, projections show the state would have closer to 400 hospitalized patients by June.