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Why Proposition 112 could pass despite widespread opposition

DENVER -- Proposition 112 is without a doubt one of the most consequential measures on your November ballot. The measure would increase oil and gas setbacks to 2500 ft for any occupied structure.

RELATED: In Depth Problem Solvers Voter Guide on Proposition 112

Over $30 million is being spent against the Proposition by the oil and gas industry while only $800,000 has been raised by supporters.

Top elected officials -- from Governor Hickenlooper to Congressman Jared Polis to Treasurer Walker Stapleton -- are opposed to the measure.

So how is a new poll showing it in the lead 52% to 48%? 

One reason could be geography.

The top three oil and gas producing counties in Colorado are Weld County, La Plata, and Garfield County. Combined population? 419,000 people.

That's a lot but it pales in comparison to some of the major population counties in our state. Denver, El Paso, and Arapahoe all are major population areas and all have very little oil and gas activity.

Are voters there less emotionally attached to this issue? Are they siding with environmentalists? All reasons why they are unpredictable.

"The populated counties , where the votes are, are not the same as the oil and gas producing counties," Fox31 Political Analyst Sandra Hagen Solin said.

"I think that voters are beginning to question the reality of "is it really that bad?" that is being portrayed," Solin added.

In addition -- the oil and gas debate has created new politically active individuals -- moms like Beth Ewaskowitz.

“I really am concerned with the proximity of wells to homes and schools,” said Dr. Ewaskowitz, a supporter of the campaign.

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