DENVER — Incumbent Republican Congressman Mike Coffman has received a lot of bad news lately.
The New York Times had him trailing by double digits to his Democrat opponent Jason Crow. The two are in a battle for Colorado’s 6th Congressional District, which covers part of the Denver suburbs.
Last week, The Congressional Leadership Fund, a Super PAC devoted to electing Republicans nationwide, announced it is pulling $1 million worth of commercials.
Inside Coffman’s campaign, however, there is still a belief he can win. Why? Internal polling and new money.
Internal polling, when reported publicly, should be met with skepticism. Campaigns have motives for releasing data, usually to keep a candidate in the race.
The latest internal poll was taken Sept. 11-13 by The Tarrance Group, well before the Brett Kavanaugh hearings occurred in Washington.
Coffman stands with a 48 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable rating among district voters.
That favorable rating is lower than 2016 (52 percent), when Coffman won re-election, but on par with his re-election win in 2014.
The poll acknowledges Coffman’s unfavorable rating is up. Coffman had an unfavorable rating of 29 percent in 2016. It sits at 43 percent today among voters in his district.
The poll puts blame on President Donald Trump for the uptick and adds the “political environment in the district is worse than it was in 2016.”
“The difference in his unfavorable ratings this cycle is that the national environment and views of President Trump have caused his negatives to be higher among registered Democrats, and he currently stands with an 80 percent unfavorable rating among Democrats,” according to a memo from last month.
According to the memo, 48 percent of independents have a positive impression of Coffman.
According to the numbers, Coffman is down 46 percent to 45 percent to Crow in a head-to-head matchup with 9 percent undecided.
That puts the race in a statistical dead heat, according to The Terrance Group, because there is a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
“The reports of Mike Coffman’s demise are greatly exaggerated,” party because of the poll and new money coming into the race,” the campaign said.
The National Association of Realtors put $600,000 into the race on Coffman’s behalf recently after polling.
Its TV buy started Sept. 26. It’s also doing mail advertising, according to FEC IEC reports. The bipartisan nonprofit organization No Labels announced last week that it is spending $1 million in support of Coffman.
Moreover, increased activity by the NRCC is being reported.
Coffman’s district usually votes Democrat, especially on the federal level.
But it also has a history of voting for Coffman. President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Gov. john Hickenlooper won Coffman’s district in the past during years in which Coffman also won.AlertMe