Poll focused on Hispanics puts Udall up 45-44 over Gardner

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Republican Cory Gardner and Democratic Sen. Mark Udall are locked in a tight U.S. Senate race that could swing the balance of power in Washington, DC.

DENVER — Colorado has been notoriously difficult for national pollsters in recent election cycles because of a tendency to underestimate the number of Hispanic voters who ultimately cast ballots.

Looking to get a better understanding of Hispanic turnout with six days to go in the 2014 election, Colorado pollster Kevin Ingham conducted a survey that over-samples Hispanic voters, interviewing them in both English and Spanish, and then weighted them in equal measure to other groups in the final analysis.

The upshot: Democratic Sen. Mark Udall leads Republican Congressman Cory Gardner by a 45-44 percent margin.

Overall, Hispanics account for just 10 percent of the 604 likely voters surveyed by Ingham, who works for the progressive-leaning Strategies 360; and Udall is winning 58 percent of Hispanic voters to Gardner’s 26 percent (white voters support Gardner by a 47-43 percent margin).

“This race at this point is a total turnout game,” Ingham said. “If you look at partisan consolidation, Republicans are backing their candidate, Democrats are backing their candidate — and Republicans are energized this year. The question in the closing days is: will Democrats turn out? Will Hispanics and young people turn out?”

The gender gap is pronounced: Udall has a 17-point edge with women, but Gardner enjoys a 17 percent advantage with men (and a 23 percent edge with white men).

Udall has also consolidated unaffiliated Colorado voters, holding a 48-37 percent lead over Gardner.

In the same survey, Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper leads Republican Bob Beauprez by a 46-43 percent margin.

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25 comments

    • KT

      They showed their EBT cards, so they must be legal. Right? Or do they just give those to anyone regardless of citizenship. So confusing these days if you need to actually be a US citizen to partake in all the hand outs, and political monkey business.

  • tjh39

    Why is it they have to have both English & Spanish. If they come here they should learn and use English just like my ancestors had to when they came to the U.S. If they can not learn our language then they do not deserve any handouts.

  • Harold Seaward

    Anyone receiving social welfare or residing here illegally should NOT be allowed to vote. Show up with a photo ID and a check stub, anything less should be criminal!

  • Anonymous

    Something smells kinda funny about this so-called “poll,” but it does appear to support the notion that GOP pandering on illegal immigration, in a vain attempt to get votes that just ain’t coming to you, is wasted effort. The Hispanics I know want what we all want: A good economy, good education for the kids, and a strong national defense. Amnesty for illegals doesn’t even make the list.

  • coloradocommish

    Clearly…. These “Hispanics” polled must be in favor of additional destruction of Life, destruction of the economic strength of America, continued degrading of morals and standards, Amnesty for trespassers into the country, increased taxes to support the Global Warming hoax, increased and recreational sexual proclivity, and to maintain a majority of minorities in a government dependent existence… How very sad.

    • Anonymous

      Anyone voting Democrat is guilty of these actions if only by association! Enabling is another word for it. It’s not the leaders it’s the confederacy of fools electing them that are the problem!

    • coloradocommish

      “UFF”…. I’m going to need a little clarification here… Dumbest of ALL time is like…. the EPITOME of dumb… Holy Cow?!!?!? Dumber than Ms. Pelosi? Dumber than Ms. Elders? Dumber than Ms. Lee? Dumber than Ms. Wasserman Schultz? Dumber than Mr. Biden? WOW.
      Tell me where YOU think I missed the mark here in my comparison. Mr. Udall supports this litany of programs… so why would I think otherwise, of those who support HIM?
      HA….. Maybe there IS someone actually dumber than me.

  • Test

    “Colorado pollster Kevin Ingham conducted a survey that over-samples Hispanic voters,…..”

    Isn’t that racist?

  • TacAirlifter

    The numbers here, especially Eli’s, are all over the map. Other “non-partisan” polling when clumped together over at RealClearPolitics, has the average overall going toward Gardner where independents/unaffiliated are breaking for the Republican. Yet, this “progressive-leaning” poll has it the other way. As they say, the TRUE poll will be next week on election day.

  • Obama

    Cory Gardner is a teabag republican who wants to trample women’s rights and pander to a dying demographic in the american population: white, middle class, men. This race won’t even be close regardless of what the polls suggest. The 2012 presidential polls were also close and that election was practically a landslide. Colorado voters are smart enough not to elect a candidate whose only real idea is to appeal to a base of extreme right wing fanatics. I wish Eastern Colorado would’ve succeeded after all so all of you crazies could have had a home of your own away from the reasonable people on the front range.

  • Hullenbeck Cowl

    It is not right the Mexicans/Hispanics come here and their vote can sway those settled here. If you are a hispanic, you should feel ashamed even if you are legal. But certainly the illegal want the free handouts. They think money grows on
    trees and have no concept of America’s Heritage.

  • Brad

    Now I thought repulicans were the rich guys. But this says Gardner is worth $132,000 and Udall $1.75 Million. That leads me to believe Gardner can relate to the common person better.

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